Titled “Youth in Transition: Navigating Jobs, Education, and Changing Political Scenario Post-July Movement”, the survey highlights a significant transformation in the political leanings of young voters in post-uprising Bangladesh.
The findings show Jamaat-e-Islami as the second most popular party among youth, garnering 21.45% of potential votes. The newly emerged National Citizen Party (NCP), born out of last year’s mass movement that led to the fall of the Awami League, is expected to receive 15.84% of the vote.
While smaller in numbers, other Islamist parties collectively account for 4.59% of the vote. Analysts note that if Jamaat, NCP, and other Islamist groups form a unified electoral alliance—a topic of growing debate—they could pose a formidable challenge to BNP's dominance.
Interestingly, despite its ouster, the Awami League still commands 15.02% of support among surveyed youth, indicating a resilient core base. Meanwhile, Jatiyo Party received 3.77%, and other political entities combined stood at just 0.57%.
The survey, which sampled 2,003 young respondents, had a 96.6% response rate to the political preference question (answered by 1,935 participants). Sanem Executive Director Dr Selim Raihan clarified that while the sample size is relatively small, the data reflects the sentiments of the surveyed group, not necessarily the entire nation.
On electoral expectations, 40.89% of respondents said they were moderately optimistic about a free and fair election. Another 27.91% were very optimistic, and 11.93% were fully optimistic. On the flip side, 13.23% were only slightly optimistic, and 6.04% were not optimistic at all.
The survey also found that 76.78% of youth plan to vote in the upcoming polls, while 4.14% said they will not, and 5.09% remain undecided. Another 13.98% stated they are not eligible to vote.
The findings were presented during a roundtable discussion held at Brac Centre Inn in Dhaka.
